Economic perspective of elections

By Joseph Torku,

Eco Bank Regional Manager for East and Central Africa

Why should elections be a big thing?

Mr. Torku denotes that Elections is just a means to an end. It comes after 4 years,hence what matters is the period after elections. He says that elections should be more of the outcome and not the elections in themselves. 

Mr. Torku cited that Kenya's population is approximately 45 million and a big chunk of these comprise the youth hence the youth can't surely fall neglect of the country's affairs.

42%- below 14yrs

3%-above 65yrs

65%- between 14-65yrs

Elections are for the future.The manager satirically stated that Kenyan politicians seem to like 'dancing' as opposed to being properly vetted with regard to their ideologies and country issues as seen in debates like in the states. This he says affects or masks real country issues from the youth by the 'dancing' politicians. Like Ghana sadly, he says that Kenyan citizens vote on the basis of small handouts from the politicians, which only accounts for a days solution and not a long-term more permanent resolution.

Kenya's per ca-pita income is about 1,700$ about 144,000 Ksh per annum thus 12,000ksh a month; 400ksh per day.USA per capita income is 4,000,000Ksh per yr despite its over 300million population.The Manager therefore adds that elections should basically sheer us to the 4million bracket but paradoxically elections in Kenya have resulted to country's breakdown rather than its overall prosperity.

"Elections is about governance, proper structures so as, for starters, improve or reduce the rich-poor gap and the total income per ca-pita  Thus its about proper sharing of a country’s national cake. So until when elections are primarily centered around national issues, is when we will start asking the right questions. Elections elects or rather empowers people to governance positions so that the national upkeep can be bigger than it is. One should therefore appreciate our democratic vote as Kenyans which is not the case in other countries like in Egypt with mubaraks past 40 yr rule, or in Kabila's country.

They say once bitten twice shy and that we should thus not let history repeat itself.

We should stop thinking subjectively and start thinking objectively as a nation and not as mere communities," said Joseph Torku.

In the symposium the Manager also stated that The World Bank projects that Kenya’s growth will slow down next year amid growing concerns on whether the elections will be peaceful. He continued saying that the bank estimates Kenya’s economy will grow at five per cent next year, if it has a peaceful General Election, well behind the predicted growth rate for the East African Community of 6.1 per cent. Should there be violence, he says the Bank warns, the country’s growth would drop to between three and four per cent. Since 2008, Kenya’s average growth rate has been 4 per cent, lower than Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda’s average of 6.8 per cent. A successful March 2013 election followed by a smooth transfer of power could see the country register better growth, adds Mr Joseph. In 2008, Kenya recorded growth of only 1.5 per cent compared with 7.1 per cent the previous year, on account of the violence that followed the country’s disputed election in 2007. It is this threat that already has business players concerned.

The Manager harshly remarked that the World Bank says that the country’s capacity to mitigate political and economic shocks is the most important determinant of its bid to achieve sustained high growth for the remainder of the decade. Through Vision 2030, Kenya aims to achieve an ambitious 10 per cent annual growth rate. The World Bank notes that despite Kenya’s huge potential and its estimated average per capita income of $800, which is higher than that of Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda, Kenya is still playing catch up in Africa’s development due to mistakes of yester years.

“Despite Kenya’s good location, strong human resources and a vibrant private sector, its level of income is only half of Africa’s average,” reads the report.

In his final sentiments the manager expressed that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the increased in public expenditure in Kenya as it prepares for the 2013 polls could have serious consequences. In a statement, the IMF executive board said that while economic activity in Kenya is on a rebound, all the gains could be wiped out if the election spending was not brought under control. Downside risks remain because of global uncertainties and spending pressures associated with the upcoming elections.